Sure white papers another is coming on education consultation documents and other
Posted in General on 07. Sep, 2010
Sure, white papers (another is coming on education), consultation documents and other “initiatives”will spew from the departmental machines. Unless departments such as Education, Health and Work and Pensions are overseen with prime ministerial zeal, a torpor descends. Even if he wanted to engage on domestic matters, he would not be able to resist the political attractions of international travel. Is it really likely that he has the energy or inclination to drive, from the centre, further reforms in the public services when so many Labour MPs will make his life difficult?The structure of this government requires a constant Downing Street focus on a particular subject.
And the more attention Mr Bush is forced to give Iraq, the more Mr Blair also needs to be involved – whether he likes it (and I think he does) or not.For Mr Blair, the international stage presents a welcome opportunity to escape from the domestic agenda. Promises before the election to cut down on international travel look pretty thin now that he has Iraq, the G8 and Europe to occupy him. Also, the President is doomed to be bogged down by Iraq for the remainder of his term. His personal ratings have nose-dived and, although the Republicans control both houses of Congress, those congressmen and senators seeking re-election next year will thwart the President’s domestic agenda for fear of too close an association with Mr Bush. In theory this should enable Mr Blair to initiate whatever he likes, daring even to take risks with his personal popularity. But I suspect that his desire to avoid unpopularity and his obsession with his “legacy”will actually freeze his zeal for pressing on with the so called “reform”agenda for the public services, pensions and welfare reform.In America, final-term presidents rarely make a domestic impact, and George Bush looks like going the same way as most of his predecessors. But, like George Bush, Mr Blair has no more elections to fight.
Indeed, this is the first Prime Minister in living memory for whom the electoral constraints no longer apply. Yes, he will doubtless remind ministers of the commitments in the Labour manifesto. But I cannot help feeling that the office trays in Downing Street over the coming months will be more likely marked “pending”, “long-grass”and “foreign travel”.The incentive for an incumbent government to tackle unresolved issues is usually driven by the desire to win a subsequent election. But, terrorism legislation apart, I defy any Labour MP – still less a voter – to name the big idea and the flagship bill that will define the Blair third term.
I suspect, notwithstanding the recent spin, that Mr Blair’s appetite for the continuing challenges of domestic politics is declining. Except that one wonders just how excited the Prime Minister is at the prospect of facing this pile of unfinished domestic political tedium. As Mr Blair prepares for the new political calendar, the normal imperatives governing a re-elected prime minister at this stage in the electoral cycle are absent. Usually a government freshly returned to office is fizzing with a great new idea.
How Mr Blair must thank his lucky stars that, unlike Gladstone in Queen Victoria’s reign, he is not required to accompany the Queen for the duration of her holiday at Balmoral. After that, the Prime Minister will, according to Blairites, aggressively confront a full in-tray of domestic problems. The season of mists, mellow fruitfulness and party conferences is about to descend. Tony Blair, who returns from holiday “shortly”, is sipping a final sundowner and taking a last lingering look at the Caribbean Sea with his international jet-set friends. Then it is back down to earth – or rather to the Balmoral barbecue for the traditional Prime Ministerial weekend with his sovereign. Well, that’s it, then Summer is over No more bank holidays until Christmas.